Oscars 2016 predictions: Leonardo DiCaprio WILL win an Academy Award

With the Oscars 2016 nominations being released earlier this month, there’s already a lot of buzz over who and what will scoop a gong or two at the 88th Academy Awards on Sunday 28 February.

Here, heat’s very own Film Editor Charles Gant gives his predictions.

Best Picture

Nominees: The Revenant, The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight

Until relatively recently, this field looked wide open. It wasn’t like a year ago, when it really came down to Birdman versus Boyhood quite early on in the race. This time, everyone was saying it was impossible to predict the win.

But I feel this is no longer the case. The Revenant suddenly looks well in the lead. It feels epic, cinematic, important. It uses visual effects in a really intelligent way – not to produce big explosions but to send Leonardo DiCaprio on a horse over a cliff and to have him savaged by a bear, amazing sequences both. And it is a challenging film that is also a surprise hit – and Academy voters might like to reward the risk-taking.

As for the rest, Spotlight (out in UK on 29 January) is a solid contender, but maybe not special enough. Spielberg’s Bridge Of Spies, same applies. Mad Max: Fury Road and The Martian are handicapped by virtue of being genre blockbusters, while The Big Short suffers from being a comedy. Room and Brooklyn are both great, but Oscar voters might see them as a bit small in scale.

Best Actor

Nominees: Bryan Cranston, Matt Damon, Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael Fassbender, Eddie Redmayne

Just hand the Oscar to Leo already. Nice work from Bryan Cranston in Trumbo (out here 12 February), Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs (but this film is viewed as a flop, which isn’t helping his chances) and Matt Damon in The Martian. I love Eddie Redmayne, but not so much in The Danish Girl.

Leo was nominated for acting four times before, but has never won. He will this time.

Best Actress

Nominees: Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, Charlotte Rampling, Saoirse Ronan

Cate Blanchett lost the Golden Globe to Room’s Brie Larson but faced the challenge of her Carol co-star Rooney Mara also being nominated in this category – splitting the Carol vote. At the Oscars, Rooney has been successfully placed in Supporting Actress, boosting Cate’s chances. My personal vote goes to Brooklyn’s Saoirse Ronan, but she is not favourite to win. Then there is Jennifer Lawrence in Joy: strong performance, middling movie. And Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years: have all the Oscar voters actually seen this film? Bookies are calling Brie for the win, which would be a great way of honouring Room – one of the most human and life-affirming of this year’s big Oscar contenders.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Christian Bale, Tom Hardy, Mark Ruffalo, Mark Rylance, Sylvester Stallone

Creed’s Sylvester Stallone won the Golden Globe and is favourite here – bit of a sentimental factor at play, in my view. Bridge Of Spies’ Mark Rylance totally deserves the win. Christian Bale is good in The Big Short, but is really on a level with other actors in that film, and you can maybe say the same thing about Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight. A big sweep for The Revenant could carry Tom Hardy to a win, but many older Academy voters will struggle to decipher his dialogue.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Jennifer Jason Leigh, Rooney Mara, Rachel McAdams, Alicia Vikander, Kate Winslet

This one is tough to call. Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs gets my vote, and she gets extra points from voters for looking fairly unrecognisable at the start of the film and for doing a complicated accent (Polish, Russian and Armenian flavours). Bookies' favourite Rooney Mara is great in Carol, and her chances improve if voters don’t plump for co-star Cate in Best Actress, as I’m not seeing enough Academy love for the film to reward it with two acting prizes. Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight: voters love a comeback, but the Academy doesn’t seem to be much embracing this very violent film. Alicia Vikander is hands down the best thing about The Danish Girl, and could beat Rooney to the prize.

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